Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold excels for casual, play-money forecasting without financial stakes. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram emerges as the standout choice.
The prediction market sector has surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide breaks down how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in yearly trading volume. Most competitive pricing on political and digital asset contracts |
| Markets | 1,000+ ongoing contracts spanning politics, digital assets, athletics, research, and entertainment |
| Fees | No house fee structure. Bid-ask gaps range from 1 to 3 cents |
| Currency | USDC denominated on Polygon network (blockchain wallet needed) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional forecasters and those with analytical advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market venue. For US-based participants unable to access Polymarket, it provides a legitimate pathway into the sector. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts and regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from launching.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform shines for those seeking to refine forecasting abilities and engage with crowd-sourced predictions — yet lacks the financial incentive structure that appeals to commercial traders. The ecosystem encompasses more than 10,000 user-generated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of expert probabilistic estimates contributed by its analyst network. While it eschews monetary stakes, it excels as a venue for establishing forecasting credentials and tackling complex international scenarios. Researchers regularly reference its track record when studying forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues to process substantial annual volumes across athletics and political wagering. Strengths include fiat settlement options, FCA oversight, and unmatched sports market depth. Weaknesses encompass 2-5% take on profitable positions, absence of blockchain-based contracts, and comparatively sparse political market coverage relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For traders outside the US seeking maximum market depth and contract selection: Polymarket accessed via PolyGram emerges as the superior option. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain interface while preserving full access to Polymarket's comprehensive order books. Start trading on PolyGram →