In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold excels for recreational forecasting using virtual currency at no financial risk. Continental European traders will find Polymarket accessed through PolyGram the most compelling proposition.
Since 2024, prediction markets have surged dramatically in user adoption and trading volume. This comparison examines how the sector's leading venues stack up heading into 2025.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction venue. It welcomes US-domiciled traders who face exclusion from Polymarket and has experienced substantial user growth. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts and regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from operating.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using play-money tokens ("mana") rather than genuine capital. This platform serves as an excellent sandbox for honing forecasting abilities and participating in crowd-sourced predictions — though it lacks genuine financial incentives. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-initiated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of crowd-sourced probabilistic estimates produced by its analyst network. Whilst it operates without monetary stakes, it provides substantial value for establishing a verifiable forecasting track record and analysing global risks. Academic institutions frequently reference its data when studying collective forecast calibration.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues to process enormous sums across sporting and electoral contracts annually. Strengths include fiat settlement options, FCA oversight, and unmatched depth in sports wagering. Weaknesses encompass a 2-5% take on profitable positions, absence of digital asset markets, and comparatively sparse political outcome coverage relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For traders outside the United States seeking maximum order-book depth and the broadest contract selection: Polymarket accessed via PolyGram emerges as the standout choice. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain component whilst preserving full connectivity to Polymarket's liquidity pools. Start trading on PolyGram →