Prediction markets focused on science and technology draw participation from highly specialised individuals—academics, technologists, and science communicators capable of evaluating technical breakthroughs with greater speed than mainstream market players. These venues consistently favour those with genuine subject-matter knowledge.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint repositories (arXiv, bioRxiv): emerging discoveries published ahead of formal peer-review cycles
- Patent registrations: technological advances frequently signal themselves through patent filings
- Approval pathways: FDA, EMA timelines and regulatory decision-making for pharmaceutical and medical innovations
- Technical symposia and keynotes: public disclosures by SpaceX, NASA, and technology firms regarding future plans
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- Resolution relies on independently verifiable information: corporate announcements, published research in peer-reviewed journals, official regulatory statements, or established news agencies (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram features the most popular science markets. Manifold Markets (using play money) provides a broader selection of user-generated markets for specialised topics.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- Absolutely — and they typically possess the strongest informational advantage. Consensus among the research community (evident at academic conferences) frequently moves ahead of market valuations by several weeks.