Key takeaway: Betfair operates under regulatory oversight, accepts traditional currencies, and appeals to sports wagerers. Polymarket functions without regulation, leverages blockchain technology, and dominates political and real-world event forecasting. When it comes to European political prediction markets, Polymarket demonstrates superior liquidity and breadth of offerings.
The prediction market landscape in Europe centres on two major players: Betfair (the established betting exchange pioneer) and Polymarket (the decentralised, blockchain-powered forecasting platform). What sets them apart?
At a glance
| Feature | Polymarket | Betfair |
| Founded | 2020 | 2000 |
| Regulation | Unregulated (decentralised) | FCA, Malta, Gibraltar licensed |
| Currency | USDC (stablecoin) | GBP, EUR, AUD |
| Market types | Politics, crypto, science, culture | Sports, politics, entertainment |
| Fees | ~2% (spread-based) | 2–5% commission on winnings |
| Deposits | USDC, MoonPay | Card, bank transfer, PayPal |
Where Polymarket wins
- Political markets: Polymarket commands considerably stronger order book depth across American elections, continental European politics, and global geopolitical developments relative to Betfair
- Transparency: Blockchain-verified settlement ensures complete auditability; Betfair's terms of service can lack clarity
- Market variety: Digital asset valuations, technological breakthroughs, academic research milestones — categories absent from Betfair's catalogue
- No bookmaker margin: Participant-driven pricing eliminates the built-in house edge
Where Betfair wins
- Sports markets: Live sports wagering constitutes Betfair's principal competitive advantage; Polymarket offers minimal coverage of active sporting events
- Fiat deposits: Traditional payment methods work seamlessly; cryptocurrency expertise is unnecessary
- Regulation: FCA authorisation provides investor safeguards and gambling harm mitigation features
- Track record: Two and a half decades of continuous service, with established mechanisms for resolving disputes
Our verdict
For those focused exclusively on political forecasting markets, Polymarket emerges as the standout choice. PolyGram streamlines participation in Polymarket without requiring cryptocurrency expertise. Start trading on PolyGram →