In this guide
Key takeaway: Prediction markets enable you to trade on how real-world events will unfold. Acquire YES or NO shares that are worth $1 upon correct prediction. Trading here requires less complexity than equities, and entry costs can be as low as $1.
Greetings to the world of prediction markets. If you have ever thought "that outcome seems likely" — you already possess the mindset of a prediction market participant. The distinction lies in committing actual capital to your thesis and earning returns when your forecast proves accurate. This introductory guide to prediction markets will have you executing trades within five minutes.
How prediction markets work (the 60-second version)
Prediction markets transform future events into tradeable propositions. Consider these examples:
- "Will the Fed cut interest rates in June?" — YES shares at $0.65, NO shares at $0.35
- "Will Bitcoin close above $90K on December 31?" — YES shares at $0.55, NO shares at $0.45
- "Will France win the 2026 World Cup?" — YES shares at $0.13, NO shares at $0.87
Each share settles at precisely $1 when the outcome materialises, or $0 if it does not occur. The prevailing price embodies what the collective market believes the probability to be. Should you believe the market has mispriced the outcome, you can trade accordingly — and capture gains when events confirm your analysis.
Step 1: Choose a platform
The two dominant prediction market venues are:
- Polymarket — leading in traded volume, blockchain-based (USDC on Polygon), accessible globally (outside the US)
- Kalshi — regulated by the CFTC, operates in USD, restricted to US participants
PolyGram connects you to Polymarket's order flow via a more intuitive platform — straightforward email registration, no cryptocurrency wallet required, and optimised for mobile users. We suggest beginning with us.
Step 2: Fund your account
Crediting your PolyGram account is uncomplicated. Funding options include debit/credit cards or blockchain transfers. Begin modestly — $10-50 suffices for initial positions. Additional capital can be added whenever desired.
Step 3: Find a market you understand
The most common pitfall for newcomers involves wagering on markets outside their domain of knowledge. Gravitate towards subjects you monitor regularly:
- Monitor political developments? Explore political outcome markets
- Monitor athletics? Engage with sporting event predictions
- Monitor digital assets? Speculate on cryptocurrency benchmarks
- Monitor technology? Forecast innovation timelines and regulatory actions
Step 4: Place your first trade
Navigate PolyGram's markets page and identify a proposition where you perceive mispricing. Should the market quote 40% and your assessment suggests 60%, accumulate YES shares. Your gain if vindicated: $1.00 - $0.40 = $0.60 per share (equating to 150% upside).
Step 5: Manage your position
Upon acquisition, three pathways present themselves:
- Hold until resolution: Maintain your stake through the event conclusion. Upon correct prediction, shares automatically convert to $1
- Sell early: Should price movement favour your thesis before settlement, liquidate for profit without awaiting final outcome
- Cut your losses: When fresh data shifts your conviction, exit at a loss rather than pursuing a recovery scenario
Risk management for beginners
- Restrict any single position to 5% of your account balance
- Prioritise deep markets with substantial trading activity and narrow bid-ask spreads — sidestep obscure propositions with sparse participation
- Maintain records of profitable and unprofitable trades to identify patterns in your decision-making
- Recognise that even highly probable events (90% odds) fail to materialise roughly once per ten occurrences
Prepared to execute your inaugural prediction market transaction? Start trading on PolyGram →