Successful prediction market traders don't operate on impulse — they adhere to a structured weekly schedule that optimises research allocation. Below is a proven 5-hour weekly framework.
Montag: Kalender und Markt-Scanning (1 Stunde)
- Review upcoming weekly catalysts: ECB announcements, electoral contests, sporting fixtures, economic data releases
- Scan PolyGram for freshly launched markets from the preceding week
- Pinpoint 3-5 markets where you hold a meaningful edge during the coming week
- Assess current holdings — do recent developments warrant position adjustments?
Dienstag-Donnerstag: Tiefenrecherche (2 Stunden)
- Conduct comprehensive analysis on each identified market
- Establish your own probability estimate independently before examining market quotations
- Compare your estimate against market price — commit only when the discrepancy is material
- Determine Kelly-optimal stake for each approved position
Freitag: Ausführung und Überprüfung (1 Stunde)
- Execute weekly positions during peak liquidity windows
- Monitor markets settling this week — document outcomes versus forecasts
- Refresh calibration records
Wochenende: Leistungsanalyse (1 Stunde)
- Calculate weekly profit/loss and rolling Brier Score
- Spot recurring biases in recent forecasting performance
- Study one pertinent research paper or market commentary within your domain
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Kann ich profitabel nebenberuflich handeln?
- Absolutely — many winning traders commit fewer than 10 hours weekly. Research depth outweighs sheer hours invested.
- Welche Tools brauche ich für diese Routine?
- PolyGram platform for trading, spreadsheet software for record-keeping, and your subject-matter references. No specialist software required.