Donald Trump has publicly stated he will be ineligible to run in 2028 — owing to his position as sitting president during his second term (2025-2029), constitutional term limits prevent a third consecutive candidacy. Nevertheless, prediction markets remain vibrant with activity surrounding his political trajectory: impeachment risks, approval ratings, legislative achievements, and speculation about potential Republican successors dominate trading volumes.
Aktuelle Trump-bezogene Prediction Market Quoten
As of May 2026 on PolyGram:
- Trump approval rating exceeds 45% through end of 2026: ~42% implied probability
- Trump faces indictment during 2027: ~18% implied probability
- Republican presidential nominee 2028: Multiple contenders actively traded
- Ron DeSantis emerges as 2028 nominee: ~15-20% implied probability
- Ivanka Trump enters 2028 race: ~8-12% implied probability
Warum Prediction Markets besser sind als Umfragen
Traditional polling regarding Trump exhibits considerable volatility depending on surveyor methodology and demographic composition. Prediction markets, by contrast, consolidate dispersed information through price discovery mechanisms: political operatives, academic analysts, media commentators, and retail participants all participate simultaneously — collective intelligence crystallises within market prices.
Auf Trump-Märkten handeln
- Navigate to PolyGram political markets
- Filter by "Trump" or "Republican" keywords
- Assess market-implied odds against your own forecast
- Execute trades in YES shares (outcome materialises) or NO shares (outcome does not materialise)
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Kann Trump 2028 kandidieren?
- No — constitutional provisions restrict presidents to two terms maximum. With Trump serving his second term from 2025-2029, eligibility for the 2028 race is constitutionally barred.
- Wer sind die favorisierten Republikanischen Kandidaten für 2028?
- Leading Republican contenders according to prediction market pricing: Ron DeSantis, J.D. Vance, Nikki Haley, and additional aspirants. PolyGram furnishes real-time odds across all prospective nominees.
- Wann lösen Präsidentschafts-Prediction Markets auf?
- Markets tracking the 2028 presidential election settle following official certification of results — ordinarily in January 2029.