Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The US Department of Defense maintains a statutory list of Chinese military companies operating within American jurisdiction under Section 1260H of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. Removal from this list requires formal delisting by the DoD, a process that has occurred rarely since the list's inception. The 42% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether any named entity will clear this bar by mid-2027, roughly eighteen months from the settlement window close.

Historical precedent suggests delistings are uncommon and typically follow either corporate restructuring, change of ownership, or successful legal challenge. Since the list's establishment, removals have been sporadic and often tied to specific geopolitical shifts or diplomatic negotiations rather than routine administrative review. The consensus probability of 42% YES implies traders see meaningful but not overwhelming odds of at least one delisting within the timeframe—a reasonable middle ground given that the list has expanded rather than contracted over time, and that US-China relations remain adversarial.

Catalysts to monitor include any announced US-China trade negotiations, corporate restructuring announcements from listed entities, or shifts in congressional oversight of the list's administration. The DoD publishes updates irregularly; the most recent public release came in June 2024. Traders should track statements from the Commerce Department and Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, which coordinate enforcement. Any significant diplomatic thaw or specific company-level delisting petitions would move the needle materially, though the current geopolitical climate makes such developments unlikely within the settlement window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.