Bitcoin price on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the likelihood that Bitcoin's noon ET price on 20 August 2026 will fall within a specific bracket, with settlement tied to the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that exact moment. The 0% implied probability suggests the crowd has assigned negligible odds to whichever bracket this market represents, indicating either extreme confidence in Bitcoin trading outside that range or minimal liquidity driving the price to an edge case.

Historical volatility in Bitcoin's intraday moves provides context for assessing this probability. Single-day price swings of 5–10% are routine during periods of elevated market stress, whilst calmer regimes see tighter ranges. The specificity of a noon ET timestamp matters; Bitcoin's 24-hour trading cycle means this captures a moment during US morning hours when institutional and retail participation overlap, typically producing moderate volume. Comparable single-point-in-time price predictions have shown that narrow brackets attract extreme probabilities precisely because hitting a precise range requires both directional accuracy and timing luck.

Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic data releases scheduled for mid-August 2026, Federal Reserve communications, and any significant cryptocurrency regulatory announcements that could drive volatility. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and dollar strength will influence intraday momentum. The 0% reading warrants scrutiny—it may reflect genuine consensus that the bracketed range is implausible, or it could signal an undervalued contrarian opportunity if the bracket sits near plausible price levels given Bitcoin's recent trading range and implied volatility metrics.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.