Bitcoin price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing the likelihood that Bitcoin's noon ET price on 25 May 2026 will fall within a specific bracket, with settlement determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that exact timestamp. The 0% implied probability suggests the crowd has assigned negligible odds to whichever bracket this market represents, though the specific price range itself remains unstated in the available context.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at fixed timestamps has historically been difficult to predict with precision. Single-minute candle closes are subject to microstructure noise, order flow timing, and brief liquidity events that bear little correlation to directional conviction. Markets attempting to forecast exact price points months in advance typically trade at extreme probabilities—either near-certain or near-impossible—because the variance around any point estimate grows substantially over longer horizons. A 0% reading here likely reflects either an extremely wide or extremely narrow bracket relative to consensus expectations for May 2026 spot prices.

Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic calendars through early 2026, particularly US inflation data and Federal Reserve communications, which have historically moved Bitcoin significantly. Regulatory developments around spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional custody frameworks could shift baseline price expectations. Onchain metrics—transaction volumes, exchange inflows, and miner behaviour—provide intermediate signals about accumulation or distribution pressure. Any major geopolitical event or central bank policy shift in the months preceding May would likely reprice the entire probability distribution, making early-window entry points potentially valuable if the current consensus has anchored too heavily on recent price action.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.