"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

At a **12% YES** price, the market is treating a domestic opening above the relevant The Numbers bracket as a clear underdog outcome, despite the fact that *Toy Story 5* is already being tracked in the **$145 million to $150 million** range for North America, with some forecasts climbing as high as **$160 million to $175 million**. [1][2] The consensus case is therefore not “can it open well?” but whether it clears the market’s threshold by enough margin to land in a higher bracket once final three-day figures are posted.

For handicappers, the historical frame is straightforward: *Toy Story* has franchise power, but this is still an animated sequel opening into a crowded summer calendar, and the trade is effectively pricing a very strong debut as still short of the implied bracket. [1][6] That leaves the favourite on the side of the most aggressive tracking, while the value case for contrarians is that the market may be over-weighting headline forecasts and under-weighting the possibility that families spread attendance through the weekend, softening the final domestic three-day total versus the loudest pre-release chatter.

The main catalysts to watch are the last wave of pre-weekend tracking, Friday-night turnout, and whether Disney’s actual theatre footprint translates into broad family demand rather than concentrated advance sales. Variety’s reporting points to a North American launch in roughly 4,400 cinemas and notes that some analysts were already modelling upside beyond the initial studio-style estimates, so any surprise on opening-day pace or audience reception would matter immediately. [1] If the film performs like the higher-end forecasts, the 12% implied probability could prove conservative; if the opening settles near the lower tracking band, the current price will look more defensible.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

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On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.