Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is still far below normal traffic, so the market’s **10% YES** price makes the underdog the default view. For this market to settle Yes, IMF PortWatch must publish a 7-day average of at least 60 ship arrivals on a date before 30 June, and current reporting has the lane operating at a near-standstill, with Reuters saying traffic was still below 10% of typical volumes in early April and other trackers describing only a handful of vessels moving through each day.[3][2]

Historically, the route has only normalised quickly when security risk has eased enough for insurers and shipowners to return, and that has not yet happened. Statista says traffic has “virtually stopped” since March, while its context notes the strait usually carries about 60 ships a day, much of it tanker traffic.[1] That sets the bar for the favourite: the market is effectively pricing in continued disruption. The value angle is the contrarian one, but it needs a fast and durable reopening rather than a brief uptick, because the 7-day moving average will lag any one-off convoy or announcement.[1][2]

Traders should watch ceasefire durability, any new naval or shipping advisories, and whether major operators restart regular schedules rather than just test runs. Reuters reported Tehran warning vessels to keep to territorial waters even as ceasefire talk continued, which shows how quickly perceived risk can reset traffic expectations.[3] IMF PortWatch is the settlement source, so the key dependency is not media headlines alone but whether its published arrivals series actually lifts back to the threshold; until then, the consensus remains clearly towards No, with value only if a sustained reopening arrives sooner than the market is assuming.[8][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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