Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private market valuation must reach the listed threshold on a Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) print before 31 December 2026 to resolve this market as YES. With the crowd-implied probability at just 12% YES, **no is the clear favourite**, yet the bet is not a deep-out-of-the-money call given how rapidly late-stage private marks re-rate when a firm already sits at massive scale[5].

Historical precedent shows that trillion-dollar private valuations can surge 18% or more in weeks once momentum locks in; Anthropic is already worth **$1.14T** as of July 2026, sitting 18% above its Series H-1 round of $965B[2]. Comparable cases like Polymarket’s Anthropic-vs-OpenAI valuation market, which priced a higher NPM mark at 83–97% probability, demonstrate that prediction markets often lag the speed of private re-pricing when a company has already leapfrogged rivals[4][7].

Traders should watch for the next NPM update, which publishes daily at 1:00 PM ET, and any announcement of a new funding round or strategic partnership that could trigger a valuation jump[1]. Recent news notes that cryptocurrency markets have pushed the odds of Anthropic hitting $1T to 99%, with $1.5T at 78% and $2.0T at 43%, suggesting the 12% price on this specific threshold may offer **contrarian value** if the next NPM print or funding announcement accelerates the re-rate[2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.