How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Fed will need to deliver **zero, one, two or more 25 bp cuts** in 2026 to settle this market, and the current **85% implied probability** is firmly on the favourite side for some easing rather than a hold. The consensus in the rates space has shifted repeatedly this year: some houses still call for no cuts through 2026, while others expect one or two reductions, leaving the main value debate around whether the market is overpricing a late-year easing cycle or underpricing a still-hawkish Fed.[1][2][5][13][14]

Historically, the shape of the 2026 call matters more than the headline level of rates. In late 2025, the Fed’s own dot plot implied just **one cut in 2026**, while traders were pricing **two to three** additional cuts; by mid-2026, officials had even removed a prior cut from their outlook and signalled that a hike was possible, with the median year-end funds rate projected at **3.8%**.[3][4] That makes the market’s current pricing vulnerable to a contrarian no-cut or one-cut outcome if inflation stays sticky, but the favourite becomes much stronger if growth cools and the Fed resumes easing in the second half.[2][5][16]

The main catalysts are the remaining FOMC meetings, the accompanying dot plot updates, and any shift in inflation or labour-market data that changes the committee’s reaction function. Reuters reported in April that economists expected the Fed to wait at least six months before any cut amid war-related energy shocks, while June FOMC minutes showed officials assigning about a **30%** probability to hikes over the near term, underlining how quickly the path can flip.[7][10] Traders should also watch whether scheduled meetings in the back half of the year produce a pause, a single 25 bp cut, or a larger move that would count as multiple cuts under this market’s rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.