Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in the White House with a 9% crowd-implied probability that he will resign, be removed, or otherwise cease to be President before the end of 2026. This market treats resignation or removal as the underdog outcome, while his continued tenure is the clear favourite. The consensus sits firmly on “No”, yet contrarian value may lurk if legal or political catalysts accelerate faster than expected.

Historically, no U.S. president has been removed via impeachment in over 150 years. Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Trump himself were all impeached but acquitted by the Senate, with Trump’s 2019 and 2021 trials ending in votes of 57–43 and 52–48 respectively [2][3]. Even Trump’s 2024 felony conviction in Manhattan did not trigger automatic removal [1]. These precedents frame the 9% probability as plausible but not inevitable, given the high threshold for Senate conviction.

Traders should monitor upcoming Senate schedules, potential new indictments, and any invocation of the 25th Amendment. A recent BBC analysis notes that while impeachment trials have occurred, removal remains exceptionally rare without a clear majority in both chambers [3]. Watch for announcements from the Department of Justice or shifts in Republican congressional support, as these dependencies could alter the settlement odds before December 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President before 2027? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.