NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

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Market context

The underlying event is the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District, held on 23 June 2026, to select the nominee for the 2026 House midterm. Current crowd-implied probability for the market “NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner” sits at 1% YES, reflecting a near-zero chance that the market resolves to any candidate other than the consensus favourite, Micah Lasher, who holds 64% implied probability on Kalshi[1]. Historically, open primaries in New York City’s inner districts have rarely produced surprise winners when one candidate commands early organisational backing and media traction; comparable cases like the 2022 NY-10 and 2024 NY-13 primaries saw favourites win with 60–70% support despite multi-candidate fields[3][4]. The 1% spot here likely misprices contrarian value: if Lasher’s lead erodes due to late endorsements or internal party splits, underdogs like Alex Bores or Jack Schlossberg could gain traction, though Schlossberg’s 2% Kalshi share suggests limited upside[1][2].

Traders should monitor three catalysts: formal endorsement announcements from the NYC Democratic Party, campaign finance filings revealing late fundraising surges, and shifts in local media coverage. A recent New York Times poll shows Lasher leading, but the race remains fluid with four other candidates on the ballot, including Bores and Schlossberg, who have begun mobilising grassroots networks[3][4]. The settlement window ends 23 June 2026, but if no nominee is declared by 3 November 2026, the market resolves to “Other”[1]. Watch for any replacement of the nominee before election day, though this does not alter resolution. The consensus is firmly on Lasher, but value may sit in the 1–3% range for underdogs if organisational cohesion falters.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.