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Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 59% Game 1 Winner 56% Game 2 Winner 55% First Blood in Game 2? 51% Volume: $128K Liquidity: $168K Closes: 25 Sept 2026
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Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
59% 41% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
59% 41% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner59%
Game 1 Winner56%
Game 2 Winner55%
First Blood in Game 2?51%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
Ends in Daytime50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?50%
O/U 2.5 Games48%
Any Player Ultra Kill39%
Both Teams Beat Roshan34%
Both Teams Beat Roshan34%
Both Teams Beat Roshan34%
Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)33%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks31%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks31%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks31%
Any Player Ultra Kill28%
Any Player Ultra Kill28%
Any Player Rampage28%
Any Player Rampage23%
Any Player Rampage23%

Market context

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 59%. This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Semifinal 1 match between Xtreme Gaming and LGD Gaming in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This mar…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
and

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