LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Maryville University and Conviction are due to meet in the North American Challengers League playoffs upper-bracket quarter-final, a best-of-three that was initially scheduled for 20 May. The market is sitting at 0% YES, which implies the crowd is treating the result as either unavailable, stale, or effectively impossible to price cleanly rather than as a genuine win probability. On form and history, Maryville have generally been the stronger side in this matchup: they beat Conviction 2-1 in the Spring 2026 group stage meeting, and the two sides also produced a close playoff series in late 2025, so this is not a pure mismatch. That matters for handicappers because the favourite has the more established NACL track record, but the underdog has already shown it can take games off Maryville, which is where any contrarian value would usually sit if the market were to reopen at a normal price.

The key catalysts are procedural rather than purely competitive. Sofascore listed the match as starting on 20 May at 23:00 UTC, while the market’s settlement window runs to 21 May at 05:15 UTC, so traders need to watch whether Riot or the tournament operator publishes a reschedule, confirms a completed result, or leaves the fixture in limbo. If the series is not played by the deadline, the market rules point to a 50-50 outcome rather than a win for either side. Recent public match trackers and Liquipedia entries show the pairing is recognised as an NACL Spring playoffs fixture, but no confirmed completed result is visible in the supplied sources, which is exactly the sort of dependency that can keep a 0% line pinned until an official bracket update lands. In practical terms, the consensus is still Maryville on team quality, but the immediate value question is whether the event is actually going ahead inside the settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.