LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

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Market context

The North American Challengers League upper bracket semifinal between Supernova and Conviction is scheduled for 22 May at 7:00PM ET, with settlement occurring by 23 May at 04:00 UTC. The 0% implied probability on Supernova reflects either a technical issue with the market or a consensus view that Conviction enters as prohibitive favourites. In best-of-three formats within regional challenger circuits, roster stability and recent scrim performance typically outweigh single-match variance, though upset potential remains material given the developmental nature of these competitions.

Historical precedent from NACL playoffs suggests that seeding disparities often correlate with match outcomes, particularly when higher-seeded teams have demonstrated consistency across the regular season. If Conviction qualified from a stronger bracket position or posted superior win rates in qualifying matches, the market's extreme skew becomes more defensible. Conversely, if Supernova's path to this semifinal involved notable upsets or if roster changes have occurred recently, the 0% figure may represent an overcorrection by traders unfamiliar with the specific teams' current compositions.

Key variables include last-minute roster announcements, which occasionally occur within 48 hours of NACL playoff matches, and any schedule shifts that might affect team preparation time. Traders should monitor official NACL communications and team social media for injury disclosures or substitutions. The settlement window's seven-day buffer provides reasonable protection against minor delays, though extended postponements without resolution would trigger the 50-50 clause.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.