Ethereum price on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET on 23 May 2026. The crowd has assigned zero probability to the YES outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in the NO resolution or minimal participation. With settlement nearly two years away, the market is pricing in either a technical failure in data retrieval or a conviction that Ethereum will not trade within the specified bracket at that precise timestamp.

Historical precedent shows that single-point-in-time cryptocurrency price markets often attract low liquidity when settlement windows extend beyond six months. The 0% implied probability reflects the difficulty in pinpointing exact price levels years in advance rather than fundamental scepticism about Ethereum's existence or tradability. Comparable Ethereum spot-price markets from 2024 and early 2025 demonstrate that crowd confidence typically clusters around broader ranges rather than narrow intraday windows, particularly when the resolution depends on a specific exchange's candle data at an exact moment.

Key variables for traders centre on Binance's operational continuity through May 2026, regulatory developments affecting ETH/USDT trading pairs, and broader market structure changes. The Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory, Ethereum's network upgrades, and macroeconomic conditions will shape volatility, but the immediate risk lies in whether Binance maintains the current data infrastructure and whether the ETH/USDT pair remains actively traded at noon ET on that date. Any exchange delisting, trading halt, or data feed interruption would trigger a NO resolution regardless of Ethereum's actual market price.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.