Ethereum price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT spot price at noon Eastern Time on 25 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle close. The crowd has assigned 0% probability to the "YES" outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific price range or insufficient liquidity driving the implied probability to an edge case. With over eighteen months until settlement, the market reflects deep uncertainty about where Ethereum will trade at a precise moment on a specific date.

Ethereum's spot price has historically exhibited volatility across multi-month windows, with swings of 30–50% not uncommon during bull and bear cycles. The 0% reading is unusual for a binary market this far from expiry and typically signals either that traders view the YES bracket as statistically improbable given historical price distributions, or that the market has attracted minimal participation. Comparable distant-dated price brackets on major cryptocurrencies often see probability drift as new information arrives; early consensus can shift substantially when macro conditions, regulatory developments, or protocol upgrades alter expected volatility.

Traders monitoring this settlement should track Ethereum's network developments—particularly any major upgrade announcements or changes to staking economics—alongside broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and macroeconomic conditions affecting risk appetite. Bitcoin's trajectory will remain the dominant price driver for Ethereum, whilst regulatory clarity on spot ETH ETFs and institutional adoption trends could reshape volatility expectations. The extended timeframe means that current pricing may undervalue tail scenarios; contrarian positioning typically emerges when long-dated markets show extreme probability skew.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.