Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
Market context
Ethereum must trade through May and settle against the listed strike levels by 1 June. The market currently prices the 2,400 outcome at 0% YES, so the crowd is effectively treating that level as unreachable in the window; by comparison, CoinGecko’s ETH page puts only a 2.9% chance on 2,600 by May 2026, while CoinCodex has ETH around $2,550.39 by 31 May. That leaves the consensus clustered in the low-to-mid $2,000s, with the upper strikes acting as clear underdog territory rather than a base case. On that reading, the main value sits in whether ETH can grind into the next resistance band rather than whether it can reclaim the top end of the range.
The immediate catalysts are familiar: spot ETF flows, broader crypto risk appetite, and any shift in the rate-cut narrative that changes dollar liquidity. CoinCodex flagged a bearish technical set-up on 20 May, with 24 bearish indicators against 8 bullish, and said ETH had fallen 4.86% over the prior week; Binance’s forecast page also had near-term price bands centred well below the market’s highest strike levels. Polymarket’s own order book shows the market already leaning hard towards the lower outcomes, so any upside move would likely need a fresh leg from flows or a sharp BTC-led rally rather than a slow drift.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade What price will Ethereum hit in May? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on PolyGram →