Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at the upcoming June and July meetings, with the real market focus shifting to whether a hike materialises in September. The current crowd-implied probability of a qualifying cut is 0% YES, reflecting a consensus that the Fed will not ease policy during this window. This aligns with the June FOMC minutes, which showed nine of 18 officials now projecting at least one rate increase by year-end, a stark reversal from March’s cut expectations [3][5]. Inflation remains above the 2% target, and renewed Middle East tensions have pushed September hike odds to roughly 70% according to CME Group data [3].

Historically, when the dot plot flips from cuts to hikes amid persistent inflation, cuts rarely follow within the same quarter. The June meeting marked Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair and delivered a unanimous hold, but the Summary of Economic Projections signaled tightening rather than easing [5]. Comparable cases from the 2022–2023 cycle show that once officials abandon cut forecasts, the probability of a near-term reduction drops sharply unless inflation collapses unexpectedly.

Traders should monitor the July 28–29 FOMC statement for any shift in the inflation outlook and the September 15–16 meeting’s dot plot update. Key catalysts include weekly CPI and PCE data, plus any escalation in Iran-related geopolitical risks, which have already lifted hike odds [3]. The CME FedWatch tool currently prices a 25-basis-point hike at the September meeting, with odds rising from 62% to 68.8% in a single day [3]. Value may sit on the contrarian angle that a cut is impossible, but the underdog case hinges on a sudden inflation cooldown before September.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.