Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve will hold three policy meetings between March and June 2026, with the FOMC deciding whether to cut, hold, or raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at each session. The market currently prices zero probability of any rate movement—either a cut or a hike—across all three meetings, implying the crowd expects rates to remain static throughout the period.

The 0% YES reading sits at an extreme. Historically, the Fed rarely leaves rates unchanged across three consecutive meetings without exception. Between 2015 and 2018, during the last sustained hiking cycle, the FOMC moved at nearly every other meeting. During the 2019–2020 easing phase, cuts or holds alternated frequently rather than clustering three holds in succession. The only comparable scenario—three consecutive holds—occurred during 2017–2018 when the Fed paused mid-cycle, but even then the market assigned meaningful probability to movement. Current pricing suggests either exceptional confidence in a perfectly stable economic backdrop or significant underestimation of tail risks.

Traders should monitor February and May employment reports, inflation data releases (CPI and PCE), and Fed communications for signals of economic stress or overheating. The March meeting arrives just weeks after Q4 2025 GDP and earnings revisions; any surprise weakness could shift expectations sharply toward cuts. Conversely, sticky inflation or wage pressures would support a hike scenario. Fed speakers between meetings—particularly Chair Powell's testimony—will telegraph the committee's reaction function. The 0% probability leaves substantial value in either direction, with cut odds appearing underpriced relative to historical precedent and economic uncertainty.

Methodology

We track Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.