England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June, with the market pricing an exact-score outcome at 9% implied probability. This reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting a specific scoreline in international football; exact scores are rare events, and the market has distributed probability across numerous possible results. The 9% figure suggests traders are pricing this particular outcome as roughly one-in-eleven, a modest but non-negligible chance.

Historical precedent shows that exact-score markets in major tournaments typically see winning outcomes settle between 5% and 15% when the underlying match involves competitive sides. England and Croatia have met twice in recent World Cup history—most notably in the 2018 semi-final, which England lost 2–1 after extra time—and their encounters tend toward close, low-scoring affairs. The consensus here appears anchored to the assumption that either side could edge a narrow victory or produce a draw, spreading probability thinly across single-goal margins rather than concentrating it on any one line.

Traders should monitor team news through late May and early June: squad announcements, injury updates to key midfielders or forwards, and any fixture congestion affecting either nation's preparation. The scheduling of group-stage matches can influence tactical approach and fatigue levels. Recent form heading into the tournament will matter, particularly whether England's attacking depth remains sharp and whether Croatia's ageing midfield core shows signs of decline. Final squad lists and any late withdrawals could shift the probability landscape, especially if either side loses a critical playmaker or finisher.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.