Haiti vs. Scotland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June. The market is pricing a Haiti victory at 62 per cent, implying Scotland as the underdog despite their higher FIFA ranking and recent qualification record. This pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about a fixture between a CONCACAF representative with limited World Cup pedigree and a UEFA side that has struggled to convert qualification success into tournament performance.

Haiti's World Cup history consists of a single appearance in 1974, whilst Scotland has qualified five times but reached the knockout stage only once, in 1978. The crowd's 62 per cent confidence in Haiti suggests either significant underestimation of Scotland's tournament credentials or overweighting of recent CONCACAF momentum. Scotland's qualifying campaign was solid but unspectacular; they finished second in their UEFA group behind Spain. Haiti qualified through the CONCACAF play-offs, defeating Jamaica and then Panama. Historical precedent shows UEFA sides typically outperform CONCACAF counterparts at World Cups, though group-stage variance remains high.

Squad composition and injury status will matter considerably between now and the fixture. Scotland's reliance on established Premier League players—particularly their attacking options—versus Haiti's domestic-league-heavy roster creates a material capability gap. Fixture scheduling within the group stage could also shift expectations; if either side plays a stronger opponent immediately before this match, fatigue and tactical adjustments become relevant. Monitor team news releases and official FIFA group announcements through May 2026 for squad confirmations and any late withdrawals that might alter the perceived balance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.