Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel has not yet publicly accepted the Board of Peace roadmap, and the latest reporting points the other way: after the framework was unveiled on 30 July, Israel said it did not adequately address Hamas disarmament and that there would be no withdrawal until Gaza is demilitarised.[1][2] With the market pricing only **11% YES**, the favourite is clearly **No**, and that looks consistent with the gap between the plan’s conditional sequencing and Israel’s demand for hard security guarantees up front.[1][3]

The historical read here is that these Gaza frameworks often trade at a discount until a formal Israeli statement lands, because the process hinges on highly specific sequencing rather than broad diplomatic goodwill. Comparable plans have repeatedly tied Israeli withdrawal to verified disarmament, hostage steps, and third-party monitoring, which makes partial progress easy to overprice and final acceptance harder to lock in quickly.[3][6][10] In handicapper terms, the current number leaves little room for a fast clean endorsement, but the contrarian case is that a sudden policy shift could be announced if Israel decides the draft is sufficiently revised to protect its red lines.[5][14]

The main catalysts are any Israeli cabinet or prime ministerial statement, plus whether the United States and mediators publish a revised text that tightens verification or alters the withdrawal timetable. Reuters reported on 30 July that the framework called for a surge in aid, a civilian Palestinian administration, Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, and an international force, while later reporting on 3 August noted fresh Israeli strikes that cast doubt on revival of the plan.[12][8] Traders should also watch for whether follow-up talks produce the “detailed mechanisms” and implementation committee work flagged by officials, because acceptance may turn on wording changes rather than the original roadmap itself.[5][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.