Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing an official Hamas statement agreeing to disarm in Gaza at **0% YES**, which makes Hamas the overwhelming **favourite to stay uncommitted** unless there is a very explicit public reversal. The practical reading is that consensus is on a continued **No**, with any upside in the market coming only from a surprise announcement by Hamas’s recognised leadership, not from indirect hints, mediator talk, or reports of conditional openness.

Comparable episodes argue for caution on the long side: Hamas has repeatedly separated any discussion of weapons from talks on hostage releases, ceasefires, and reconstruction, and recent reporting says it has refused to enter disarmament talks without a full Israeli withdrawal or other guarantees. Reuters reported in April that Hamas told mediators it would not discuss disarmament unless Israel fully withdrew from Gaza, while later Reuters-linked and BBC reporting said it was still insisting on phase-one compliance and broader political conditions before any weapons handover. That pattern matters because prediction markets usually need a clean, official, and unambiguous signal; partial or conditional language can matter only if it is a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability.

For traders, the key catalysts are any formal Hamas communiqué, a televised statement by the acknowledged leadership, or a mediator-backed draft that Hamas publicly accepts in writing. Watch for developments tied to ceasefire phase sequencing, Israeli withdrawal timetables, reopening of crossings, reconstruction access, and whether any plan shifts from “disarmament first” to “withdrawal first”. Reuters’ April reporting and subsequent coverage in June suggest the negotiation structure remains the main dependency, so the value case for an upset would sit in a narrow window where Hamas accepts phased decommissioning in exchange for enforceable guarantees; absent that, the 0% pricing still looks directionally consistent with the public record.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.