US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

The United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The market asks whether any portion of this agreement text becomes publicly available by 1 July 2026—a thirteen-day window from announcement to settlement.

The crowd's 90% confidence reflects a strong historical baseline: major US-Iran agreements have typically seen at least partial public disclosure within weeks of announcement. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saw its full text released within days of the framework agreement, whilst even confidential diplomatic agreements often leak or are formally published ahead of ratification. However, the current administration's approach to transparency differs materially from predecessors. Recent US-China trade agreements have occasionally remained partially redacted for extended periods, and sensitive security provisions sometimes stay classified. The thirteen-day settlement window is notably tight—shorter than typical congressional review periods—which introduces genuine uncertainty around whether formal release occurs before the deadline, even if leaks or partial disclosures emerge.

Traders should monitor whether Congress receives the full text under any statutory review requirement, as this would likely trigger public availability. The State Department's standard practice is to publish treaty texts on its website following signature, though timing varies. Watch for statements from Iranian officials or credible reporting on agreement contents; leaked excerpts would satisfy the "widely available" criterion. The signing ceremony on 19 June provides a natural disclosure moment, but the subsequent twelve-day window depends on administrative procedure rather than diplomatic momentum.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.