0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz faces a selective blockade where commercial navigation is suspended for most vessels, yet neutral-flagged ships occasionally transit under IRGC vetting. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% for zero transits by July 2026, the consensus treats a total shutdown as impossible given the June 17 US–Iran agreement that guaranteed immediate reopening. However, value may sit contrarian to this certainty, as recent data shows daily transits have collapsed from over 100 to fewer than 10, with periods of complete outbound stagnation already recorded in June 2026 [1][5].

Historical precedents from the 2026 crisis frame this probability as fragile; traffic plummeted by over 95% following US–Israeli strikes, and the strait was officially closed for weeks in March before a limited reopening [5][8]. Even after the April ceasefire, only 45 ships passed through, and a brief reopening in June was followed by commercial suspension again as risk heightened [6][8]. These fluctuations suggest that a zero-transit day remains a plausible outcome if diplomatic tensions spike or vetting systems tighten further.

Traders must watch IRGC announcements on vetting protocols and any escalation in US–Iran strikes, which directly dictate vessel access [5]. The June 17 agreement’s stability is the primary dependency; any breach could trigger immediate closure, as seen when traffic dropped to 22 vessels during a four-day attack exchange in late June [4][7]. Recent reports confirm traffic recovery remains limited, with only nine commercial ships detected crossing since a recent Monday, indicating the bottleneck crisis persists despite official reopening claims [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.