Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade. This market settles on the 7-day moving average of ship transits recorded by IMF Portwatch for 31 May 2026, with the crowd currently pricing a YES outcome (above the unnamed threshold) at just 21 per cent. The resolution hinges on counting container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo vessels—a straightforward metric that reflects both commercial shipping patterns and any disruptions to one of the world's most strategically sensitive chokepoints.

Historical transit data shows the Strait averages 2,000–2,500 daily transits in normal conditions, with seasonal and geopolitical variation. The 21 per cent probability suggests the crowd expects either a significant dip or is anchoring to a high threshold. Recent years have seen volatility tied to US sanctions on Iranian oil, Houthi attacks on shipping (notably in late 2023 and 2024), and periodic tensions between regional powers. IMF Portwatch data is granular and reliable, making this a relatively clean settlement mechanism compared to other geopolitical shipping markets.

Traders should monitor Iran's oil export capacity and any escalation in Red Sea incidents through early 2026. Announcements of new US or EU sanctions, shifts in Iranian nuclear negotiations, or Houthi activity could all compress transit volumes. Conversely, a thaw in regional tensions or increased global oil demand would support higher transit counts. The May settlement window falls outside traditional winter storm season in the Gulf, reducing weather-related disruption as a variable. Watch IMF Portwatch's own reporting cadence closely, as delays in publication could compress the resolution timeline.

Methodology

This page reviews Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.