Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran faces an urgent US demand to publicly guarantee it will not attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a condition tied to upcoming negotiations in Oman. The crowd-implied probability of this commitment materialising by the settlement deadline sits at just 2% YES, positioning the “No” outcome as the heavy favourite. Historically, Tehran has treated control of the strait as a critical leverage point, often issuing conditional permissions for “non-hostile” vessels rather than blanket non-aggression pledges, as seen in recent UN communications where US and Israeli-linked ships were explicitly barred [2]. This pattern of ambiguous, conditional statements rather than declarative policy shifts suggests the consensus is correctly pricing in a low likelihood of a full, unambiguous commitment.

The primary catalyst for a contrarian angle would be an official Iranian announcement ahead of the Oman talks, yet US officials describe the navigation guarantee as the “most immediate sticking point” Iran is adamant about retaining [5]. Recent reports confirm the US is demanding a public statement guaranteeing the strait is open and that no vessels will be targeted, but Iranian leadership views this administrative control as non-negotiable leverage [5]. Traders should monitor the outcome of the Saturday negotiations in Oman and any subsequent declarative statements from Iranian officials, as the current 2% probability reflects the high barrier of Tehran relinquishing this strategic advantage without a broader, verified ceasefire framework [3][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.