US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is **0% YES** against a backdrop where the main question is whether the June framework can be converted into a qualifying signed instrument by 31 August. The favourite remains **No** unless there is a fresh, written diplomatic act that is mutually signed or formally adopted in the required way; the current consensus looks anchored to the gap between a broad roadmap and the harder work of turning it into final text, which is exactly where these talks have repeatedly stalled.[1][9][12][15]

Historically, this is the sort of file that can move fast on headlines yet still miss the finish line. Earlier rounds this year were repeatedly described as “progress”, “constructive”, or built around “guiding principles”, but the same reporting also stressed that key issues such as enrichment, inspections, sanctions relief, and broader security terms remained unresolved.[3][5][6][11] That is the main contrarian angle for a Yes price from zero: once negotiators have a written framework, the incremental step to a signed follow-on instrument can be shorter than the market expects. The bear case is stronger, though, because the 60-day window was designed for negotiation, not automatic finalisation, and comparable diplomacy has often produced frameworks that never become a durable final deal.[2][16]

For catalysts, watch for any formal signing dates, whether in Europe or elsewhere, plus confirmation from US, Iranian, or mediator channels that a draft text has been “adopted” rather than merely discussed.[9][12] A second trigger is whether technical meetings produce named annexes on uranium stockpiles, inspections, or sanctions sequencing, because those are the items that usually determine whether a paper agreement is legally and politically complete.[1][15] Reuters reported on 12 June that a signing in coming days was possible and that a 60-day negotiation period would follow, which shows how close the process was at the start; the value question now is whether that momentum has already been spent, or whether the next communique closes enough of the open items to beat the clock.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.