US x Iran permanent peace deal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is asking whether Washington and Tehran will reach a lasting agreement that formally ends military hostilities by 31 December 2026. At 0% implied for Yes, the crowd is treating a permanent peace deal as a long-shot underdog rather than a live base case. That looks consistent with the history of US-Iran dealings: when progress has come, it has usually been narrower ceasefire, prisoner or nuclear arrangements, not language that cleanly terminates hostilities on a durable basis.

For framing, the key comparison is not a treaty-style breakthrough but previous stop-start crisis management, where both sides have preferred tactical de-escalation over a politically costly final settlement. The recent reporting mix points in that direction too. Richard Haass wrote on 10 April that the war had reached “a critical juncture” and that a US-Iran ceasefire had been agreed but not implemented, while Polymarket’s own description references ongoing negotiations and a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire. That leaves the consensus anchored in scepticism: the favourite remains “no permanent peace”, with any value on Yes sitting entirely in the contrarian view that a ceasefire could harden into a broader framework.

The catalysts to watch are whether talks move from temporary truce language into explicit end-of-hostilities wording, and whether any outside mediator can bridge the gap between deconfliction and formal peace. A credible market-moving development would be a joint statement, a signed framework, or an announced sequencing plan linking ceasefire implementation, sanctions relief and security guarantees. Short of that, traders should expect headlines around mediation channels, prisoner exchanges, nuclear discussions and regional maritime security to matter more than rhetoric alone, because those are the dependencies most likely to determine whether a temporary pause ever becomes a permanent deal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.