Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive waterways, with roughly one-fifth of global oil transit passing through its 21-nautical-mile width. The market asks whether any country will send warships through this chokepoint between Iran and Oman by end-July 2026—a straightforward passage question that hinges on geopolitical escalation or routine naval operations. At 5% implied probability, the crowd is pricing this as a low-likelihood event over the next eighteen months.

Historical precedent suggests the threshold for warship transits is lower than the crowd's pricing implies. The United States Navy conducts Freedom of Navigation operations through the Strait regularly, with destroyers and guided-missile cruisers passing through multiple times annually as a matter of stated policy. European navies—particularly France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—have also transited warships through the Strait during anti-piracy and regional security missions. Even during periods of elevated Iran tensions, including 2019–2020, these transits continued. The question's resolution hinges on whether "any country" includes routine US operations, which would make the probability substantially higher than 5%.

Traders should clarify whether the market's low probability reflects genuine uncertainty about transits occurring, or whether it reflects ambiguity in how "confirmation" is defined. US Navy transit schedules and public announcements from CENTCOM provide regular documentation. Recent reporting from Reuters and naval tracking services confirms ongoing US destroyer deployments to the region. If routine US operations count toward resolution, the market appears underpriced; if the market intends to exclude standard US Freedom of Navigation passages and requires an unexpected or escalatory transit, the 5% figure may be closer to fair value.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.