# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a measurable view count within its opening 24 hours, with the market currently pricing a 97% probability that this figure will exceed the lowest bracket threshold. The settlement hinges on real-time view data from his channel, with the deadline set for mid-June 2026 and a fallback resolution if no video materialises by month-end.

MrBeast has established himself as one of YouTube's most consistent high-velocity performers. His recent uploads routinely exceed 50 million views within 24 hours, with several crossing 100 million in the same window. The 97% implied probability reflects the near-certainty that his next video will clear even modest view thresholds—a reasonable assessment given his subscriber base exceeds 200 million and his upload cadence remains regular. Historical precedent suggests the real variance sits in which upper bracket the video lands rather than whether it clears the floor entirely.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload schedule and any production delays that might affect timing. His content strategy has shifted toward larger collaborative projects and high-budget productions, which occasionally extends gaps between releases but typically correlates with elevated first-day performance. The settlement window's June deadline creates a hard constraint; any extended hiatus beyond that point triggers automatic resolution to the lowest bracket. Watch for announcements regarding major collaborations or special events, as these typically drive outsized opening-day engagement relative to his standard content.

Methodology

This page reviews # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.