Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-kilometre waterway between Iran and Oman, remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive chokepoints. Roughly one-third of global maritime petroleum trade passes through it annually. Military vessels transiting the strait—whether conducting freedom-of-navigation operations, regional patrols, or deterrence missions—occur with some regularity, though the specific countries involved and frequency depend heavily on geopolitical tensions and naval posture shifts in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean regions.

Historical precedent suggests warship transits through the strait are neither rare nor exceptional. The United States Navy has conducted regular transits for decades, often accompanied by allied vessels from the UK, France, and Australia during periods of heightened regional tension. Between 2019 and 2023, multiple countries increased operational tempo through the waterway in response to Iranian threats and Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. The 7% implied probability reflects a baseline expectation that transits will occur, yet the crowd appears to price in either a significant de-escalation or an assumption that the resolution criteria—requiring credible confirmation of specific country transits—may prove difficult to satisfy definitively.

Traders should monitor announcements from regional naval commands, particularly US Central Command statements on freedom-of-navigation operations. Recent reporting from Reuters and naval tracking services indicates continued allied presence in the Gulf. The critical variable is whether geopolitical conditions in early 2026 prompt announced or publicly confirmed transits by non-US powers, as American operations are nearly certain but may not constitute the "listed country" threshold the market intends to capture. Escalation around Iranian nuclear negotiations or Houthi activity could accelerate transit schedules.

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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