Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships routinely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, yet recent data shows a dramatic collapse in transit volumes. Over 30,000 vessels traverse this strait annually, with daily oil transport exceeding 20 million barrels in 2022, but crossings have fallen by more than 95% since the Iran war began [6][8]. The IMF PortWatch recorded 41 transit calls in a single week in March 2026, yielding a daily average of 5.86, which suggests the baseline is fragile but not zero [1]. This historical context frames the current 46% YES probability as a contrarian bet on a rebound rather than consensus confidence in sustained traffic.

The market’s value lies in spotting early catalysts that could reverse the stagnation, such as de-escalation in regional tensions or new shipping agreements. Traders should monitor IMF PortWatch updates for trade disruptions linked to attacks on commercial ships, as these directly suppress transit calls [2]. Recent reports confirm that tanker traffic flows remain at risk, with monthly revisions and weekly data updates reflecting ongoing volatility [5]. A contrarian angle would be to bet on a sudden surge if geopolitical conditions improve, as the current consensus assumes continued suppression without accounting for potential policy shifts or security improvements.

The implied probability of 46% suggests the crowd is evenly split, but the underdog position (YES) holds value if disruptions ease. Consensus leans toward NO due to persistent attacks, yet the 5.86 daily average indicates a floor exists [1]. Traders should watch for announcements on Red Sea security or Iran-related diplomatic progress, as these could trigger a rebound in transit calls. The settlement window ends in July 2026, leaving ample time for catalysts to materialise, making the YES side a speculative play on recovery rather than a guaranteed outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.