Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026?

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Market context

Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf, would need to fall under sustained control by a foreign state or occupying force rather than Iran by end-March 2026. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that a full territorial seizure—not mere bombardment or temporary disruption—remains extraordinarily unlikely within the next fifteen months.

Historical precedent suggests such shifts occur through prolonged regional conflict or major power intervention. The 1980–88 Iran–Iraq War saw repeated attacks on Kharg but never permanent loss of Iranian control; the island remained operationally contested but administratively Iranian throughout. More recently, the Houthis' drone and missile campaign against Gulf shipping (escalating since 2023) has damaged regional infrastructure without displacing state sovereignty. A change-of-control scenario would require either a full-scale military invasion by a neighbouring state—Saudi Arabia or the UAE—backed by sustained occupation, or a major power intervention, neither of which current geopolitical positioning supports.

Traders monitoring this should track escalations in regional naval activity, particularly any explicit statements from Gulf states regarding territorial claims or military operations. The recent February 2024 Houthi attacks on shipping lanes and January 2024 US–Iran tensions provide context for baseline volatility, though neither translated into territorial seizure attempts. Any announcement of a formal military campaign targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, rather than shipping lanes, would shift probabilities materially. The settlement window's fifteen-month span leaves room for unforeseen conflict escalation, but the consensus correctly prices the baseline scenario as remote.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.