Which NFL players will be traded?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market prices the likelihood of a specific NFL player being traded by late July 2026 at just 1%, implying near-certainty the player remains with their current franchise through the settlement window. This reflects the rarity of mid-season trades in professional American football, where roster moves typically cluster around the draft period and the trade deadline in late October. The 18-month timeframe encompasses two full NFL seasons, yet the crowd assigns minimal probability to any transaction occurring.

Historical precedent suggests this pricing may undervalue certain scenarios. Mid-tier players with expiring contracts or those on underperforming teams have been traded outside the traditional deadline window, though such moves remain uncommon. The 2022 trade of Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders mid-season and the 2023 Saquon Barkley trade to the Philadelphia Eagles both occurred in September, demonstrating that front offices will act decisively when roster needs align with available talent. Contract structures, coaching changes, and injury developments across the 2024–2025 seasons will determine whether any player becomes a genuine trade candidate.

Traders should monitor offseason roster decisions, coaching staff changes, and injury reports throughout the settlement period. Significant indicators include whether the player's team experiences unexpected decline, whether contract negotiations stall, or whether new coaching regimes prioritise different personnel profiles. Announcements regarding front office restructuring or explicit statements from management about roster direction would shift the calculus substantially. The extended timeframe means catalysts could emerge at any point, yet the 1% probability suggests the market views such developments as highly improbable for the specific player in question.

Methodology

This page reviews Which NFL players will be traded? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win 2026 — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win 2026?

Zero. Who Will Win 2026 routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.