How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has seen a tentative but measurable return of shipping traffic following a temporary cease-fire between the US and Iran last month, though volumes remain well below pre-conflict levels. As of the weekend of July 6, 2026, maritime activity showed signs of improvement with more vessels entering the Persian Gulf than departing, a reversal from earlier weeks when outbound flows were dominant [5]. This uptick has contributed to a decline in oil prices, supported by OPEC Plus’s announcement to increase crude production [5].

Historically, the strait has been subject to extreme volatility; in June 2026, outbound commercial traffic was nearly halted for 72 hours with zero crude tankers moving, reflecting a severe bottleneck crisis [1]. However, by mid-June, tanker traffic resumed after an interim deal was signed between the US and Iran, signalling cautious recovery [4]. The current 85% crowd-implied probability for “YES” on ships transiting aligns with this recovery trend, yet value may lie in contrarian bets if the peace agreement’s sustainability falters, as Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics notes this will determine whether energy-driven disinflation holds or a second oil crisis emerges [5].

Traders should monitor the durability of the US-Iran peace talks and any announcements from Tehran regarding tolls or mine-laying, which previously effectively closed the route [3]. The settlement depends on IMF Portwatch’s finalized transit calls, which exclude unreported ships—a risk given that some vessels manipulate GPS tracking during the journey [3]. With the settlement window ending July 12, the key catalyst is whether the temporary cease-fire translates into consistent daily transits or reverts to the bottleneck patterns seen in late June [1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.