GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, and the market’s 0% implied probability reads as a hard underdog price against a year-end deadline that still allows for a late-cycle surprise. On the facts available, the consensus sits much closer to “not yet” than “imminent”: reporting around the model expected after GPT-5.5, shipped in April 2026 under the GPT-5 family name, suggests the next true numbered step has been delayed rather than accelerated.[1][12]

Historically, OpenAI’s numbered-model cadence has not been fixed enough to make a same-year launch certain, and the GPT-5.5 outcome is a useful warning against reading development codenames as launch signals.[1][12] The contrarian case is that public chatter and tracker-style write-ups have repeatedly pushed the expected window into the second half of 2026, with some observers arguing that a public release could still land before the calendar closes.[3][14][15] For a handicapper, that keeps the favourite side on “No”, while “Yes” only becomes interesting if the market has over-discounted a late-2026 announcement followed by a rapid public rollout.

The catalysts to watch are straightforward: an explicit OpenAI announcement naming GPT-6, any public beta or rolling waitlist for general users, and evidence that the model has moved beyond private testing into broad access.[10][11][15] The biggest dependency is timing of product readiness versus safety and infrastructure sign-off, because even a trained model can miss a year-end settlement if OpenAI holds it back for staged release.[9][13] Absent a firm launch post from OpenAI, the base case remains that the market is pricing a very low-probability year-end public debut, with any value on the upside tied to a late announcement and unusually fast deployment.[1][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews GPT-6 released by…? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.