Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods, the golfer, has no known federal criminal convictions requiring a pardon, commutation, or reprieve. The market hinges on whether Donald Trump would issue such a clemency measure to Woods during his second term, which runs through January 2025 and potentially beyond if re-elected. The 1% implied probability reflects the extreme unlikelihood of this scenario materialising absent a dramatic shift in Woods's legal circumstances or a sudden political motivation for Trump to act.

Presidential pardons typically address individuals with existing federal convictions or pending charges. Woods faced a 2017 DUI arrest in Florida, which resulted in a plea to reckless driving—a state-level matter outside federal jurisdiction and one he resolved without incarceration. Historical precedent shows Trump has issued pardons to political allies, celebrities with connections to his circle, and individuals he views as wrongly prosecuted, but Woods has no documented relationship with Trump's inner circle nor any federal legal exposure that would trigger clemency consideration. The absence of a federal case makes this fundamentally different from typical pardon candidates.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for any unexpected federal charges against Woods or a sudden public alignment between Woods and Trump's political interests. As of late 2024, neither condition exists. The market's settlement depends on official government confirmation of a pardon, commutation, or reprieve, with credible reporting as secondary verification. Without a material change to Woods's legal status or an unprecedented political development, the consensus pricing at 1% appears aligned with the negligible probability of resolution to "Yes" by June 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win 2026 is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win 2026 triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.