Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The US-Iran ceasefire is still holding, and the market is pricing that as near-certain: 97% implied for a continuation through the deadline. That makes Yes the heavy favourite, with the question for traders being less about the base case than whether there is any credible path to a break in the truce. Comparable ceasefire trades tend to stay anchored high until a concrete breach, because headline risk alone is rarely enough to flip the outcome. In earlier Iran-related de-escalations, markets initially treated the arrangement as fragile but tradable, then only repriced sharply when there were confirmed violations rather than mere accusations. That leaves the underdog case concentrated in a narrow set of events: a verified US kinetic strike on Iranian soil, or an official confirmation that the ceasefire has lapsed.

The main catalysts are diplomatic schedule risk and any escalation in the wider regional theatre. Reporting from Fortune on 8 April noted Tehran saying parts of the ceasefire framework had already been violated even as markets barely reacted, while IG described formal talks expected to begin in Islamabad and stressed that the deal was temporary and details remained sparse. That points to the real watch-list: official readouts from Washington and Tehran, any change in talks timing, and any linked fighting around Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, or US assets in the region. With consensus so heavily on Yes, value is more likely to sit on the contrarian No side only if there is a clear geopolitical trigger; absent that, the favourite remains well protected.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.