Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The first ceasefire phase has already run, but the second phase still requires a fresh public agreement between Israel and Hamas, so the market is really pricing the odds of a difficult political follow-through rather than a simple extension. With implied probability at **66% YES**, the crowd is leaning towards the favourite, but not by enough to treat this as a done deal; the value case sits with the underdog if talks stay stalled or if the parties choose an informal pause instead of a formal second-phase text. [4][7]

Historically, this sort of market has been prone to overpricing momentum after a first-stage breakthrough. The earlier 2025 ceasefire showed how quickly a staged deal can slip: the first phase expired without a second-phase agreement, negotiations were delayed, and the truce moved into limbo despite outside mediation. More recently, US officials and Israeli leaders have repeatedly said phase two is expected to cover disarmament, governance and a broader Israeli withdrawal, but those are the hardest issues in the package, which makes “YES” dependent on more than hostage releases or a temporary battlefield calm. [5][6][12][17]

For traders, the key catalysts are formal announcements from Israel, Hamas or the US, plus whether mediators in Qatar and Egypt can lock in a written framework before the settlement window closes. Watch for any schedule tied to hostage remains, prisoner exchanges, troop redeployment lines, or the naming of a technocratic Gaza administration, because phase two has been described as hinging on those sequencing details. When the US said phase two was advancing in January 2026, it still left core questions unresolved, and as of later reporting the talks had remained stalled over Israeli attacks and Hamas disarmament. [1][3][9][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.