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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Five-platform snapshot of "Next leader out of power before 2027?" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

None before 2027 51% Netanyahu - Israel PM 30% Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 4% Lecornu - France PM 4% Volume: $1.2M Liquidity: $593K Closes: 1 Jan 2027
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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Who Will Win 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 51% 49% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 51% 49% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
None before 202751%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea4%
Lecornu - France PM4%
Sánchez - Spanish PM3%
Macron - France President1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President1%
Abbas - President of Palestine1%
Merz - German Chancellor1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President0%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP0%
Albanese - Australia PM0%
Newsom - California Governor0%
Milei - Argentina President0%
Trump - USA President0%
Putin - Russia President0%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President0%
Takaichi - Japan PM0%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President0%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President0%
al-Sharaa - Syria President0%

Market context

Next leader out of power before 2027? — current market-implied probability: 51%. This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the o…

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win 2026 trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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