Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently stuck in a near-total standstill at the Strait of Hormuz, with zero commercial vessels moving outbound as of late June 2026, marking an unprecedented operational bottleneck that threatens global energy flows[1]. Before the recent conflict, roughly 100 vessels transited daily, but war and sanctions have crushed traffic to a fraction of that level, leaving the choke point effectively closed despite diplomatic promises[2].

Historically, similar choke points have recovered only after explicit, enforced agreements; the US-Iran memorandum of 17 June guarantees immediate navigation restart, yet the 25-vessel peak on 25 June remains far below the 60-arrival threshold needed for this market to resolve "Yes"[2]. The crowd-implied probability sits at 18% YES, reflecting deep scepticism that Iran will meet its "best efforts" pledge before the July 31 deadline, especially as the US naval blockade lift on 19 July is the final prerequisite for full restoration[2]. This consensus may undervalue the contrarian angle: if the blockade lifts early and Iran complies swiftly, traffic could surge past 60, offering value on the underdog.

Traders must watch two catalysts: the 19 July US blockade lift and any IMF Portwatch data releases confirming sustained 7-day averages above 60[2]. Recent MarineTraffic data showed 50 vessels in 24 hours, but this is still below the required threshold, and no official confirmation of sustained recovery exists yet[7]. Without a clear, verified uptick in the coming weeks, the "No" outcome remains the favoured position.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.