Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping comes with the market at roughly 40% YES, leaving tariffs as a fairly live but still underpriced outcome if talks produce a concrete concession. The consensus view is that Washington will prioritise symbolism and broader stability, while Beijing looks for predictability and leverage, which makes a tariff announcement possible but not the base case. In comparable leader-level summits, the pattern has usually been broad language on cooperation, with any market-moving trade detail left to later working-level talks; that tends to favour the underdog on a narrow, definitive tariff cut rather than a sweeping deal.

The main catalyst is whether Trump can point to a specific reduction, suspension or removal of existing China tariffs before the settlement cut-off, not just a promise to keep talking. Recent coverage from CFR and CSIS suggested the Beijing talks were likely to centre on tariff stability, economic cooperation and political signalling rather than structural trade reform, which means the crowd’s 40% may be leaning too far towards expectations of a headline. Traders should watch for any White House or Chinese readout mentioning tariff relief on China-specific goods, a new tariff truce, or a schedule for implementation; absent that, comments about negotiations, reciprocity or future meetings should not count.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.