Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

A country formally joining the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026 is a low-probability political event, with the market implying only **6% YES** and the crowd still treating the field as an underdog basket rather than a live base case.[2][3] The consensus price action points to **Somaliland** as the favourite among the listed outcomes, with **Jordan** and then a scattered set of other names not far behind, but no outcome is priced like a likely win.[2][3]

Historically, the Accords have expanded only when diplomatic incentives, security alignment, and US mediation all moved together, as in the 2020 wave of normalisation deals.[4] That makes the current setup look more like a speculative optionality trade than a confirmed pipeline, especially because the broader regional backdrop has been tense and Saudi Arabia has publicly signalled caution amid the Gaza war.[5] For handicap purposes, that means the favourite is still an **underdog** in absolute terms, while the value case is usually in whichever candidate can convert quiet contacts into a formal, public signing rather than just warmer rhetoric.[2][5]

The catalysts to watch are official joint statements, planned visits, and any US-brokered announcement that explicitly uses the Abraham Accords framework, since the market resolves only on a formal, publicly acknowledged agreement by both governments.[2][3] Reuters reported in March 2025 that Donald Trump said more countries would be added and the White House had highlighted Saudi Arabia as a possible candidate, but Saudi reservations remained tied to the Gaza conflict.[5] That leaves room for a contrarian angle: if talks unexpectedly accelerate, the market could reprice quickly from a very low base, yet absent a named signing sequence or summit schedule, consensus still looks closer to “no new entrant” than to a completed accession.[2][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win 2026, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win 2026. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.