Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is still being treated by the market as the clear favourite, with the crowd-implied probability at 100% Yes, leaving almost no room for a meaningful underdog price. That kind of pricing usually reflects a view that the truce, once established, is easier to keep than to restart a kinetic campaign against Iranian soil. Comparable Gulf stand-downs have tended to survive on narrow, transactional terms: they can hold for weeks or months if both sides see more value in restraint than escalation, but they remain vulnerable to one misread incident, an attribution dispute, or a political need to reassert deterrence.

The main question for traders is less whether the ceasefire exists today than whether any reported strike is confirmed quickly enough to invalidate it under the market rules. Reuters has reported that recent ceasefire arrangements have been framed around safe passage, monitored compliance, and a short window for extension talks, which means headline risk is concentrated around official statements, military briefings, and any fresh coverage of the Strait of Hormuz or Iranian missile activity. The consensus therefore sits squarely with the Yes side, but the only real value spot is the timing risk: if there is a credible report of US kinetic action on Iranian soil, the confirmation clock becomes decisive, and that is where a heavily favoured Yes can still be vulnerable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.