Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Jerome Powell has already said he will step down as Federal Reserve chair by 15 May 2026, so the market’s 0% implied probability looks like a stale price rather than a live dispute. In handicap terms, “No” is the overwhelming favourite only if the settlement question is read as a future event; on the facts available now, the consensus appears to be that he has vacated the role and any value on the other side would depend on a definitional error in how the market is being priced. The key point is that the chairmanship is distinct from his governor seat: Powell can leave the chair post and remain on the Board until his governorship ends in 2032.

The closest comparison is the normal Fed transition process, where a chair either serves out a term or leaves when a successor is installed, but the market here is about actual vacancy, not mere announcement or scheduled expiry. Powell’s current four-year chair term began on 5 February 2022 and would have run into 2026, yet the settlement rules say the scheduled end alone is not enough. That makes the outcome hinge on whether he has in fact ceased to hold the chair, not on whether a replacement has been nominated or confirmed.

Traders should watch for Federal Reserve statements, the Board’s leadership roster, and any Senate confirmation timetable for a successor. Reuters and other wire services will usually flag any formal handover quickly, but the practical catalyst is the date Powell stops occupying the chair role, including any brief continuation in a caretaker capacity. If the handover has already occurred, the only live angle is a technical one: whether the market and the official record align on the exact moment of departure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.